The Way of Water made an astonishing $2.3 billion at the worldwide box office (via Box Office Mojo), becoming the third highest-grossing movie ever. Additionally, just like the first movie, The Way of Water was also nominated for Best Picture.

Since the first two movies in the franchise were recognized at the Academy Awards, it's likely that the directed by James Cameron, I would be shocked if Fire And Ash didn't get a reception similar to its predecessors. Early details about the movie tease more conflicts arising on Pandora as Jake Sully and his family encounter a new Fire Clan. If it is received well, then Avatar: Fire and Ash could achieve an Oscars feat that only two other franchises have.

Will Avatar: Fire & Ash Land A Best Picture Nomination At The Oscars 2026?

Avatar: Fire And Ash Will Be One Of The Biggest Movies Of 2025

It's still too early to predict what films will be nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards, but I would honestly be surprised if Avatar: Fire and Ash wasn't part of the group. Depending on how it's received upon its December release, it's likely that Fire and Ash will be considered a serious contender for Best Picture heading into awards season. While it's possible that the third movie in the series will be a critical failure, I doubt that this will be the case considering how much work Cameron and his team have clearly put into it.

Out of all the blockbusters coming out this year, I think Avatar: Fire and Ash has the best chance of being recognized by the Academy.

The first two Avatar movies were both nominated for Best Picture, which suggests that Fire and Ash will continue this trend. In recent years, the Academy has nominated one or two prestige blockbusters for its top prize. For example, in the last three ceremonies, Dune: Part Two, Barbie, and Top Gun: Maverick all received nominations. Out of all the blockbusters coming out this year, I think Avatar: Fire and Ash has the best chance of being recognized by the Academy. Therefore, I believe it's a safe bet to assume it will be nominated for Best Picture at next year's ceremony.

Avatar Going 3-3 In Best Picture Nominations Matches The Godfather & LOTR

Avatar Could An Elite Group Of Franchises

If Avatar: Fire and Ash is nominated for Best Picture, then it would achieve an Oscars feat that only two other franchises have accomplished. Throughout Hollywood's entire history, The Godfather and The Lord of the Rings are the only two trilogies that have gone three for three in being nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Fire and Ash may not be the conclusion of a trilogy, but I believe it has just as much of a chance as the third Godfather and Lord of the Rings movies did at nabbing yet another Best Picture nomination for the franchise.

Even though The Godfather Part III was not as acclaimed as the first two movies in Francis Ford Coppola's trilogy, the legacy of the series ensured that it received a Best Picture nomination. Meanwhile, the third Lord of the Rings movie is arguably the best film in the trilogy. This led to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King not only being nominated, but also winning Best Picture in 2004. I don't think Fire and Ash will mimic Lord of the Rings' success and win Best Picture, but I'd be shocked if it isn't at least nominated.

The Avatar Franchise Could Sur Both Of Those At The Oscars

Avatar: Fire And Ash Won't Be The Franchise's Last Movie

For years, people argued that Avatar is not a franchise that a lot of people care about. There was an argument for this in the 2010s, but The Way of Water's release proved beyond a doubt that people are interested in Cameron's wildly ambitious series. Whether you are a fan of Avatar or not, it can no longer be denied that it is one of the most popular franchises of our time. Combined, the first two movies managed to make over $5 billion at the box office, and it's likely that Fire and Ash will be another massive hit.

If Fire and Ash does end up experiencing the same kind of success and gets nominated for Best Picture, the Avatar franchise actually has a chance to beat this rare Oscars feat. Since Avatar: Fire and Ash is not part of a trilogy like The Godfather and The Lord of the Rings films were, the story of the film will continue in future entries. As is seen in the above table, in addition to Fire and Ash, two more Avatar movies have also been confirmed by Cameron.

Currently, Avatar 4 is slated to be released on December 21, 2029 and Avatar 5 is scheduled to hit theaters on December 19, 2031. Generally, it would be safe to assume that future Avatar movies have a lower chance of being nominated for Best Picture. However, if The Way of Water taught us anything, it's to never bet against Cameron. Therefore, I think it's possible that the fourth film will also be nominated for Best Picture, which means the Avatar franchise could sur The Godfather and The Lord of the Rings trilogies.

Another Franchise Could Also Equal The Godfather & Lord Of The Rings

Dune 3 Could Also Be Nominated For Best Picture

In addition to Avatar, another ongoing franchise also has the opportunity to match The Godfather and The Lord of the Rings' impressive Oscars feat. The first two Dune movies were both nominated for Best Picture, so it's possible that the confirmed Dune 3 will also be honored at the Academy Awards. Since the third Dune movie will once again be directed by Denis Villeneuve, this would not be surprising. Dune 3 will likely come out before Avatar 4, so it's possible that there will (at least temporarily) be a three-way tie for franchises with the most Best Picture nominations.

However, it's worth noting that Dune 3 will adapt the novel Dune Messiah, which is much weirder than the first book. Because of this, Academy voters may not enjoy it as much as the celebrated Dune: Part Two. Although, since not many details have been revealed about Dune 3, it's unknown how Villeneuve will choose to adapt the novel's bizarre storylines. Therefore, it would be unfair to rule out Dune 3 as a Best Picture contender this early. Regardless, it's exciting that both Dune 3 and Avatar: Fire and Ash have the opportunity to achieve this rare Oscars feat.