Oscar. This isn't to say that any other name on the MCU's impressive roster of talent isn't deserving, but his odds aren't just taking into his performance; they play into his entire overarching narrative, both on and off the screen.
When Robert Downey Jr. ed the MCU, it was a make-or-break moment - not just for Marvel's on-screen future, but for Downey Jr.'s career. He was the title character in sacrificing himself to save the universe, he closed the book on his story, but cemented his legacy.
Now, even though Iron Man is part of Marvel Studios' past, there's still one final way to honor RDJ's decade-long performance. He can Tropic Thunder, respectively, Avengers: Endgame could be his ticket to a win.
Before Downey ed the MCU, his personal life wasn't so far off from Tony's. When he was climbing in his career, some personal demons had gotten the best of him, making it all too easy to lose everything he'd worked so hard to acquire. Then, with the cards stacked against him, he beat the odds and had a comeback, redefining his image and defying expectations. It's the kind of success story that makes for a great movie; and, in Downey's case, art imitated life about as much as life imitated art - aside from a few fancy gadgets and cosmic stones.
Downey may not seem like he'd be the dark horse during awards season on of his notoriety, but his win wouldn't just be for his role in Avengers: Endgame. It'd be for the MCU as a whole. It'd date back to 2008, when a tenacious actor and a budding franchise took a chance on each other. And, when it comes to comeback stories - something the Academy is hardly averse to - this is it. The Academy doesn't exactly have a reputation for honoring franchises solely because they've come to an end (they hinted at this with Hollywood's most impressive accomplishments.
The Academy hasn't always been anti-fantasy, but it's no secret that certain genres tend to get the cold shoulder come Oscar night. That said, last year's Best Picture nomination for Black Panther proved that they were open to lifting this veil, breaking the Big Five Oscar seal for superheroes. So, given that Downey's already gotten love from the Academy twice before, delivered a consistently unblemished performance for over a decade, and was given the chance to push Tony Stark's fiery highs and defeated lows to new limits for his swan song, nominating him - and even giving him the gold - would be the safest, but also most deserving, way for the Academy to tip their hat to Marvel, the Avengers, and the end of an era.
