Avatar: The Way of Water to become the highest-grossing studio of the year. While Disney typically relies on massive tentpoles like the MCU, Avatar franchise, princess movies, and live-action remakes of animated classics for its annual box office success, the slate of movies and Disney’s early box office problems suggest it may lose the crown to another studio in 2023.
Universal’s latest campy horror-comedy movie Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, with the latter film winning at the box office by under $10 million. Given how close the commercial battle was between a niche horror film and an MCU blockbuster movie, Disney could be in trouble at the 2023 box office.
Cocaine Bear Nearly Taking Down Ant-Man 3 Is Bad News For Disney
With Cocaine Bear’s $23 million box office opening against Ant-Man 3’s $32 million second-weekend performance, the killer bear movie came extremely close to taking down the MCU film. Disney’s Marvel movies in 2022 held onto the number one spot at the box office by wide margins for at least two weekends, with their major competition being critically acclaimed blockbusters. For instance, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was taken down by Top Gun: Maverick, Thor: Love and Thunder was dethroned by Jordan Peele’s Nope, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was finally overtaken by Disney’s own Avatar: The Way of Water.
Considering Cocaine Bear is a niche R-rated horror movie, the fact that it was the project to nearly take down Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is extremely impressive for Universal, yet worrying for Disney. Disney typically relies on the MCU for its yearly box office total, so Ant-Man 3’s record-breaking second-weekend drop and near-loss to a zany horror movie mean Marvel films aren’t as secure as the studio may think. Disney shouldn’t be worrying about one of its biggest money-makers potentially losing to an outlandish horror-comedy, but Cocaine Bear is proving that the 2023 box office market has changed.
Disney Is Relying On The MCU & Indiana Jones In 2023, But Universal Still Has Massive Hits On The Way
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is already hinting at how Disney’s 2023 MCU movies may not be reliable at the box office, which is a big problem considering the studio only has a few other potential box office hits. The other two MCU films releasing in 2023 are Indiana Jones 5 in June, and Elemental in June, the former two of which are still predicted to perform well at the box office.
As impressive as the Disney films’ box office earnings will certainly be, these few hits may not be enough to beat the huge slate of releases from Universal. Throughout 2023, Universal will be premiering The Last Voyage of the Demeter (another Dracula movie), an Exorcist film, and Trolls 3. The Super Mario Bros. Movie has been predicted by some to perform even better than the Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ trilogy-ending film, with the hype for Fast X and Oppenheimer hinting they can beat The Little Mermaid and Indiana Jones 5.
Considering how many markets Universal’s releases are tapping into, the studio has the best chances of taking down Disney with its sheer number of potential box office hits from big franchises. Fast X, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Oppenheimer are all predicted to be some of the highest-grossing movies of 2023, which is far more optimistic for Universal after the box office mishap of the MCU’s Ant-Man 3. If The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Fast X, and Oppenheimer can sur the earnings of The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones 5, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, then Universal has a real chance of beating Disney.
Universal & Disney's 2022 Box Office Totals Hint At How Universal Can Win In 2023
By summer 2022, Universal was already leading at the box office, becoming the first studio to $3 billion worldwide since the pandemic. However, with Disney’s later MCU releases and Avatar: The Way of Water, Universal fell to the second spot in 2022. At the 2022 domestic box office (via Deadline), Disney came in on top with 26% of the market share at $1.93 billion, followed by Universal with 22% of the market share at $1.64 million. Universal wasn’t far behind Disney in 2022, and still has the potential to catch up to – and potentially sur – the studio’s winnings in 2023.
While Universal seems to be winning with its releases, Disney is already at a major advantage with the 2023 box office earnings of Avatar: The Way of Water. The James Cameron sci-fi hit has already amassed nearly $1 billion in 2023, which works to offset the potential losses of Ant-Man 3’s longevity at the box office. However, it may not be enough to combat Universal’s hits spread out over the rest of 2023. Aside from The Marvels, which isn’t expected to be as big as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Disney doesn’t have any massive releases in the fall, which is where Universal can truly clean up at the box office.
Since Universal’s only major exclusive theatrical release in fall 2022 was Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, the studio missed out on a key box office timeframe. Universal is now correcting this mistake by scheduling Trolls 3, The Exorcist reboot, and another Illumination animated movie in the fall. Meanwhile, Disney’s only fall 2023 blockbuster is The Marvels, which could repeat Ant-Man 3's box office shortcomings. As Universal continues taking risks on theatrical releases of off-the-wall films like Cocaine Bear and M3GAN, the studio is able to clean up in markets Disney doesn’t hit. They won’t be billion-dollar successes, but can still provide necessary competition against Disney to better Universal’s chances of taking the 2023 box office crown.
