Of the six Best Picture nominees from the 2025 Best Picture nominees, Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, I'm Still Here, and Wicked are all running in theaters over the weekend, while Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, and The Substance are not, having already concluded their runs.

Per The Numbers, of those six titles, one has emerged as the clear victor. Although every movie but the Brazilian biographical drama I'm Still Here is playing in an expanded number of theaters to capitalize on their buzz, the Timothée Chalamet-led Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has taken a clear lead with a projected 3-day domestic total of $904,000 for the weekend, significantly ahead of the Best Picture frontrunners Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The next highest-grossing nominee of the weekend, I'm Still Here, only earned $530,000. See the projected grosses for all six nominees over Oscars weekend:

What This Means For A Complete Unknown

Its Best Picture Chances Are Changing

Taking the lead over Oscars weekend is yet another feather in the cap for the A Complete Unknown release, as the movie has already grossed more than $100 million worldwide, making it the third highest-grossing Best Picture nominee of the year behind Dune: Part Two ($714.6 million) and Wicked ($728.3 million). While box office success does not directly correlate with winning Oscars, widespread viewership and buzz can sometimes help fuel a Best Picture win, as was likely the case for movies such as Titanic, Oppenheimer, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

A Complete Unknown was directed by Walk the Line's James Mangold and also stars Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy.

So far, the Bob Dylan biopic has not been a frontrunner, and in fact GoldDerby's odds show it as the fourth most-likely winner, tied with Wicked at 9 to 1 odds. However, along with these box office results, its recent awards performance could show that the race is being shaken up at the last minute. Chalamet just won Best Actor at the SAG Awards, supplanting Adrien Brody from the longtime frontrunner The Brutalist for the first time at any major awards ceremony all season, potentially indicating that the tide of Best Picture has slowly been turning.

Our Take On The Oscar Weekend Box Office

It's A Good Sign For A Complete Unknown

Even if A Complete Unknown does not ultimately win Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards, these box office results could be a good sign for its performance in the other seven categories in which it is nominated. These are Best Director, Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Best ing Actor (Edward Norton), Best ing Actress (Monica Barbaro), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Sound, and Best Costume Design. If general audiences are continuing to respond so well to the movie during its tenth weekend in theaters, the same could be true of the Academy.

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Source: The Numbers & GoldDerby