Hollywood of the 2020s has the opportunity to be defined by a major sci-fi blockbuster battle: Avatar. Even without the current COVID-19 pandemic that has wholly dominated 2020 as a year and the beginning of a new decade, this period would be the beginning of a new chapter for Hollywood’s blockbuster cinema.
Following the climactic third phase of the record-breaking Star Wars (not to overlook the explosion of high-concept and lavishly produced genre television), it’s clear that there’s a strong possibility for a new brand of big-budget science-fiction epic film to enter the equation.
Plenty of studios have tried to go big with risky projects intended to keep up with the current franchise trend, most notably the myriad attempts to recreate the MCU mold, but few have managed to stay afloat. The new decade, however, kicks off with one major contender to dominate the genre in an adult-specific manner, while another competitor hopes to create a saga around a historic but oft-overlooked 2000s blockbuster.
Assuming Warner Bros. has no plans to move it from its current release date given the continuing coronavirus crisis, Denis Villeneuve’s long-awaited adaptation of the classic sci-fi novel Dune will arrive in theaters a week before Christmas this year. An all-star cast, featuring Jason Momoa, and many more, have the unenviable task of bringing to life some of the genre's most beloved characters. Dune is considered one of the great texts of 20th-century science-fiction and a big-budget cinematic adaptation worthy of the source material as well as being in possession of the technical capabilities to bring this grandeur to life has been a long time coming for fans.
On the flipside, premiering a year later in almost the same slot is Avatar 2, the long-planned and oft-delayed sequel to what was, for a solid decade, the highest-grossing movie of all time. Cameron, never a director lacking ambition, has been planning a multi-film series set on the world of Pandora from the very beginning, but it took until 2017 for principal photography to begin. If things go as planned for both Warner Bros. and Disney (which now owns the Avatar franchise thanks to their acquisition of Fox), then the 2020s could be the decade of sandworms and Na’vi. How could this play out over the coming years?
Dune & Avatar Both Have Multiple Movies In The 2020s
James Cameron has always been a director willing to commit to massive scales, well beyond typical Hollywood fare, but even by his standards, his plans for Avatar feel grand. Altogether, there will be four Avatar sequels, with releases currently scheduled for 2021, 2027 by Disney. The combined cost for this quartet will reportedly be $1 billion. At $250 million per movie, that makes the franchise easily some of the most expensive movies ever made.
By contrast, Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures’ plans for Dune seem somewhat conservative, but that would be doing them a great disservice. A sequel to Dune has already been confirmed by Legendary CEO Joshua Grode, with Denis Villeneuve and Dune: The Sisterhood will focus on the Bene Gesserit, the saga's all-female religious movement who play a key role in the story of House Atreides, and is currently set to begin filming later this year.
Dune & Avatar Are Both December Tentpoles
While debates continue over the overall effectiveness of Hollywood continuing to rely on its Solo: A Star Wars Story.
This holiday season - once again, assuming that the schedule isn't dramatically rearranged to compensate for the industry delays and closures caused by coronavirus - there are no Marvel, DC, or Star Wars titles, and no big flashy Disney releases. Dune is one of the few movies on offer that feels almost like a traditional Christmas tentpole blockbuster, which in and of itself is curious (its closest competition, released the week after December 18, is Top Gun: Maverick.)
2021's schedule is already filling up fast thanks to the many changed release dates of 2020 films, which means next Christmas is already a surprisingly competitive season at the box office. Avatar 2's biggest competition will be Robert Downey Jr. in Black Adam, with Dwayne Johnson in the title role. Both Dune and Avatar 2 represent big investments for their respective studios, even with other titles on their slates.
Assuming Dune 2 happens (it may still be dependent on the financial success of its predecessor before it receives a proper greenlight), it would make sense for Warner Bros. to stagger its release in-between those many Avatar sequels. December remains hot territory so Warner Bros. will most certainly be considering their options now and it would be wise to keep the growing series solidly as a Christmas offering.
Dune & Avatar Are Made By Big Name (But Very Different) Filmmakers
What differentiates Avatar and Dune from their blockbuster contemporaries like the MCU and Star Wars is that they are branded in more director-focused . Avatar was firmly d as being the brainchild of James Cameron, a savvy decision given his status as a blockbuster kingmaker and a man who makes very popular and profitable movies. Denis Villeneuve isn’t exactly on the same level of stardom – few directors are in 2020 – but he is a celebrated filmmaker with Oscar nominations to his name and status of prestige among his peers and critics alike. A Dune movie done properly was never going to be the stuff of a workmanlike studio director. If nothing else, it will be fascinating to see two studios try to launch new franchises based less on pre-existing structures and more on the question of art.
James Cameron has hardly been loathed by the critics but he doesn’t carry the same weight of prestige that Denis Villeneuve currently does, thanks to the one-two punch of Blade Runner 2049, sadly, was a major financial flop for Villeneuve and company.)
Dune vs Avatar: Which Sci-Fi Movie Will Win
It’s always foolish to bet against the idea of James Cameron making all of the money with his movies, but the Avatar sequels remain strange curiosities in 2020. In 2009, Avatar was a bona fide phenomenon, the stuff of Hollywood legend and a record-breaking financial success as well as a multi-Cameron’s name and the memory of that first film be enough to entice hesitant viewers?
Dune doesn’t exactly have an easy road to success either. It is a famously difficult book for many, one that covers such a massive saga of characters, locations, and geopolitical squabbles. While the novel isn’t technically hard sci-fi, most general audiences who haven’t read it still code it as such and view it as a niche interest. Many people associate Dune with the notorious Deadpool (we don’t know if Dune will be rated R, but the source material certainly lends itself better to R than PG-13.)
This could come down to a battle of prestige versus profit. While both the Avatar and Dune properties need big box office numbers to justify their lofty investments, only the former has anything remotely close to a guarantee of grosses right now, if only because Cameron is a historically profitable filmmaker with the might of Disney in his corner as well as a property that people are way more familiar with than Dune. It would be wrong to categorize Dune as some sort of scrappy underdog in all of this but it certainly has a tougher uphill battle than Avatar or any other major genre franchise currently dominating Hollywood. It’s a movie that is certainly likely to be a critics’ favorite, or at least one that encourages their more than the behemoth of Avatar. As superheroes continue to be the foundations of blockbuster cinema, it’s the hard sci-fi potential of Dune versus Avatar that could prove the most enticing cinematic battle of the coming years.
