Summary

• Kevin Costner previously revealed that he invested $38 million into the making of Horizon: An American Saga, but it's unclear if he also contributed to the movie's $30 million marketing spend.
• If Costner didn't contribute to marketing, he may have already broken even from presales, but if he did, then the film will have to earn about $65 million domestically for him to recoup his money.
• Horizon's financial details remain somewhat murky since Costner is making four movies, but the first film is not off to a strong start at the box office.

A new report reveals how much star of Horizon: An American Saga, which chronicles settlers' arduous journey West in the years before and after the American Civil War. The epic Western represents a major ion project for Costner, who previously revealed that he's invested $38 million of his own money into the film.

A report from Business Insider now breaks down how the financials for Horizon: An American Saga need to work out for Costner to avoid losing money. A key point raised in the report is that it's unclear whether the actor contributed money to the film's estimated $30 million marketing spend. If he didn't shell out for marketing, there's a chance he's already earned his $38 million back due to presales (when territories agree to distribute a film before seeing it). If he's also responsible for the marketing costs, however, the film would reportedly need to earn $65 million domestically.

Horizon's Complicated Financial Situation Explained

Will Kevin Costner Recoup His Investment?

Apart from Costner, the key investors covering the rest of Horizon: An American Saga's $100 million budget haven't been made public. Warner Bros. has agreed to distribute the first film and the Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2, but their risk here is relatively low since they're essentially serving as a distributor-for-hire. Per the Business Insider report cited above, Warner Bros. is reportedly pocketing 8% of the grosses for the film, with Costner and his other mystery investors getting their own cuts of the grosses starting from day one.

What makes the film's financial situation especially complicated, however, is the fact that Costner isn't just making one Horizon movie – he aims to make four. The $38 million figure that Costner revealed previously was already in question because it isn't clear whether that amount is only for the first film, or if it also covers some of Chapter 2. After reportedly struggling to find financing, Horizon 3 production is now seemingly underway. How much exactly the star has invested – and continues to invest – remains something of a question mark.

Other factors that could help Costner avoid major losses on Horizon are VOD sales and a strong Pay 1 deal with a streamer or cable company.

Assuming Costner did shell out for marketing and the first film needs to earn $65 million domestically just for him to break even (the figure for the film itself to be considered a success is far higher), things aren't off to a promising start. On top of Horizon's lackluster reviews, the film has been a major disappointment at the box office, grossing only about $11 million in North America on its opening weekend. It's possible that things will turn around in the weeks ahead, but it's currently not looking like Costner's Horizon: An American Saga investment will pay off.

Why Horizon Hasn't Been A Box Office Hit

The Kevin Costner Movie Faces An Uphill Battle

As of writing, Horizon's making Horizon feel like the first entry in a miniseries rather than a film that stands on its own two feet. Combined with the almost three-hour runtime, the poor reviews are likely deterring audiences from going to the theater.

Horizon's Rotten Tomatoes audience score is higher at 71%, suggesting that general movie-goers are enjoying the film more than critics, but not by much. The movie also has a Cinemascore of B-, a similarly lukewarm result. Together, the scores suggest that Horizon isn't playing well enough with the audiences who do see it to garner strong word-of-mouth. Word-of-mouth can sometimes be a game-changer for movies after a poor opening weekend, but there's no reason to believe that Horizon will benefit from this in the weeks ahead.

The film's poor performance essentially cements what was already well known: Westerns don't have much wide-audience appeal anymore. While there have been success stories in the past two decades, like Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained, there have been far more disappointments, such as The Lone Ranger (2013) and The Magnificent Seven (2016). Horizon: An American Saga being a Western also means it will have to rely mostly on domestic performance at the box office, as the genre is generally unpopular overseas.

The Horizon Franchise's Future Explained

Will Chapter 4 Even Happen?

Unfortunately for Costner, none of this bodes well for the future he envisions for the franchise. The Horizon: An American Saga ending paves the way for the sequel hitting theaters in a matter of weeks, but the next film is now shaping up to be an even greater disappointment than the first movie, at least financially. It's entirely possible that Horizon and its sequels will be far more popular on VOD and streaming, but it's not looking likely that even stellar home-viewing performance will be enough to salvage Costner's expensive ion project in the short term.

Horizon 3 is currently in production, but it will now be a major challenge for that film to find distribution. It will presumably be an even greater challenge for Costner to get the money together for his planned fourth film, especially if it requires another $100 million. As an original film not based on existing IP, however, Horizon: An American Saga is certainly worth celebrating, as is Costner's sheer ambition and determination in getting his grand saga to the big screen.

Source: Business Insider