Summary

• Horizon: An American Saga faces poor early reviews and box office woes, potentially repeating Costner's past failures like Wyatt Earp.
• Part 1's lengthy 181-minute runtime mirrors past criticisms of his bloated Western films, dampening box office expectations for the epic saga.
• Costner's personal and financial stakes are high, with millions invested and potential consequences for his legacy and future projects.

Kevin Costner's marathon Western movie series poor early reviews, which puts him on track to repeat one of the most infamous failures of his career. The sprawling Western adventure will weave together a series of interconnected stories across four movies, each theorized to run around three hours. Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1 will hit theaters on June 28th, 2024, with the immediate sequel set to release just a few weeks later on August 16th, 2024.

Unfortunately for Costner, who has a massive personal stake in the epic saga that has been his long-developing ion project, the box office prospects for Horizon look bleak if not outright disastrous. While the Academy Award winner is no stranger to box office flops, Costner is now in danger of repeating a particularly similar failure from 30 years ago if box office projections hold. Horizon's failure may in fact sur that earlier Western flop due to how much Costner has given up personally and professionally to will it into existence.

Horizon Could Be Another Expensive Western Box Office Failure Like Wyatt Earp

The 1994 Epic Didn't Even Recoup Its Budget

While the sci-fi epic Waterworld may be his most famous box office bomb, Kevin Costner was also the driving force behind the lengthy 1994 biographical Western drama Wyatt Earp. Based on the real-life exploits of the eponymous U.S. Marshal, Wyatt Earp was released just a few months after the profitable and acclaimed ensemble Western classic Tombstone, which featured many of the exact same characters, settings, and events. While Tombstone nearly tripled its $25 million budget at the box office, Wyatt Earp managed just $56 million on a budget of $63 million.

Kevin Costner was actually supposed to be involved in Tombstone, but his disagreement over the prominence of the character of Wyatt Earp led to him creating Wyatt Earp with director Lawrence Kasdan.

Ironically, many of the reasons that reviews for Horizon: An American Saga are so bad were also prevalent in criticisms of Wyatt Earp. Primary among them was that the movie's bloated 190-minute runtime obscured the better elements of the movie, such as the direction, cinematography, and acting. Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1 has a runtime of 181 minutes, with a similar runtime projected for the three subsequent parts of the story. All other criticisms aside, a traditional Western with a runtime like that stands little chance of box office viability.

Why Horizon Being A Box Office Bomb Will Be Worse For Costner Than Wyatt Earp

Costner's personal and professional stakes are greater

While Wyatt Earp was critically panned and a failure at the box office, it did very little to dim Kevin Costner's star power. He bounced back in the next few years with the classic sports movies Tin Cup and For Love of the Game, and he has remained one of Hollywood's true A-listers in the last two decades. However, Horizon: An American Saga's failure would be even more disastrous for Costner than Wyatt Earp due to the damage it could do to him both personally and professionally.

Costner has already begun filming Part 3, which means even more money is going into the project before the first two parts have even hit theaters.

Additionally, Horizon's struggles make Costner's exit from the hit drama Yellowstone look even worse. While it could have truly just been about his desire to pursue his ion project, the bevy of rumors about behind-the-scenes drama on the Taylor Sheridan show cast doubt and suspicion over Costner's decision. The potential failure of Horizon: An American Saga after his abandonment of Yellowstone could be a black mark on the record of the Hollywood icon.

What Went Wrong With Wyatt Earp's Box Office

The 1994 Movie Was Overambitious And Poorly Timed

Overall, the biggest issue with the Wyatt Earp box office was most likely the movie's proximity to the 1993 hit Tombstone. The Costner movie came to theaters just six months after the similar title, which likely took a significant chunk out of its theatrical potential. While it didn't underperform by a significant margin compared to the earlier movie, its production budget being more than twice that of its competitor nevertheless stymied its ability to scrape together a profit. Below, see a comparison of the critical and commercial success of both movies:

If Wyatt Earp had similarly only cost $25 million, it would have come much closer to being in the black. Between theaters keeping half of ticket sales and marketing costs likely being somewhat high on top of the bloated budget, the 1994 Western may still not have earned a pure profit in theaters. However, its performance on home video could have bolstered its financial prospects considerably if its budget wasn't $63 million, which likely meant that its break-even point was $126 million or more.

There are also other factors that likely bled into its underperformance. The first is its run time, which was three hours and 11 minutes as compared to the still epic but considerably slimmer run time of Tombstone, which only lasted 2 hours and 10 minutes. Reviews for Wyatt Earp were also overwhelmingly negative. While modern audiences on Rotten Tomatoes have responded to the movie better than critics at the time, word of mouth likely wasn't as strong for the movie as it would have been for Tombstone.

Why Horizon's Box Office Projections Are So Bleak & What It Means For Parts 2, 3 & 4

Will Kevin Costner Get To Complete His Western Quadrilogy?

There are several likely reasons that Horizon's box office projections are suffering, and they are almost the exact same issues that plagued Wyatt Earp. The first is the critical reaction. The early Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 reviews that came out of its May 19 premiere at Cannes landed the movie a thoroughly rotten Tomatometer score of 43% at the time of writing. The movie may also be hampered by a bloated 3 hour and 1 minute run time, which reduces the amount of possible screenings per day in addition to potentially scaring off viewers with busier schedules.

It seems likely that Chapter 2 will still be released in theaters as planned...

The box office performance of the Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 could make or break the franchise. It still seems likely that Chapter 2 will be released in theaters as planned, considering its proximity to Chapter 1. Tickets are also being sold to both titles in tandem, so it seems unlikely it would be pulled from theaters unless the box office is truly catastrophic. However, if both installments are substantial failures, it could potentially force Chapter 3 to reduce its budget and see Chapter 4 get scrapped entirely.

Ultimately, the first movie may connect with Costner's Yellowstone audience and become a success when it reaches VOD and audiences can watch it at home. However, it remains to be seen if the project's substantial budget prevents it from ever breaking even, just like Wyatt Earp. The first two chapters of Horizon: An American Saga reportedly cost around $100 million altogether (including $38 million of Costner's own money), meaning they will likely have a collective break-even point of $200 million or more.