The trailer for Maria dropped in September, and Jolie’s fans have been eagerly awaiting the film’s Netflix release ever since.
When Maria premiered at the 81st Venice International Film Festival earlier this year, it received mostly positive reviews, with critics singling out Jolie’s performance for particular praise. This has led to widespread Oscar buzz around Jolie’s turn in Maria. After being released in select theaters across the U.S. on November 27, the movie is now streaming on Netflix. Now that more people will be able to see it, that Oscar buzz should start to get a bit more mainstream. But what are Jolie’s odds of actually winning Best Actress for her turn in Maria?
Angelina Jolie Is A Predicted Best Actress Oscar Nominee For Maria - But She's Not The Favorite To Win
Mikey Madison Has Better Odds To Be The 2025 Best Actress Winner
Jolie is one of the actors predicted to earn a Best Actress nomination at next year’s Oscars, but she’s not the favorite to win. The odds for the 2025 Best Actress nominees were posted by GoldDerby, who don’t actually accept bets on the Oscars despite posting odds for them. The current favorite to win Best Actress is Mikey Madison for her powerful turn as the titular sex worker who gets swept into a whirlwind romance in Sean Baker’s acclaimed dramedy Anora. GoldDerby puts Madison’s odds of winning Best Actress at 19/5, while Jolie is right behind her with 9/2 odds.
Actor |
Movie |
Odds of Best Actress Nomination |
|---|---|---|
Mikey Madison |
Anora |
19/5 |
Angelina Jolie |
Maria |
9/2 |
Karla Sofía Gascón |
Emilia Pérez |
5/1 |
Nicole Kidman |
Babygirl |
8/1 |
Cynthia Erivo |
Wicked |
10/1 |
Karla Sofía Gascón has 5/1 odds of scoring a Best Actress nod for the musical thriller Emilia Pérez, Nicole Kidman has 8/1 odds of getting nominated for the romantic drama Babygirl, and Cynthia Erivo has 10/1 odds of getting nominated for the blockbuster Broadway adaptation Wicked. Jolie is ahead of those three actors in her chances at winning Best Actress for Maria, but she’s still a little behind Madison, who remains the favorite. DraftKings puts Madison’s odds at -160 to win. It’s clear that the industry has chosen a frontrunner, but it’s not over until Oscar night.
Maria's Release On Netflix Could Improve Her Chances Of Winning Best Actress
More People Will See Maria When It Drops On Netflix
For the past few months, the only people who have been able to see Jolie’s performance in Maria have been industry elites who get to go to film festivals and audiences in the small handful of cities where it got a theatrical release. Now that Maria is streaming on Netflix, a lot more people will be able to see it. This kind of uptick has been seen in the past with previous Oscar contenders released by Netflix, like Marriage Story, May December, and The Power of the Dog.
Golden Globes 2025 Nominations: What Each Category Tells Us About The Oscars Race
The Golden Globes nominations have a direct impact on the 2025 Oscars race when it comes to Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting categories.
The buzz around Jolie’s performance should start to pick up when more casual viewers see the movie and start discussing it on social media. This online discussion should put Jolie’s Oscar buzz on par with the enthusiastic discourse around Madison’s performance in Anora and Erivo’s performance in Wicked. Jolie is one of the biggest movie stars in the world, and Maria is her comeback role. When fans who have missed her in her absence get a chance to see it, the excitement around her Oscar prospects should take off.
What Angelina Jolie's Oscars History Means For The 2025 Best Actress Race
Jolie Has Never Won Best Actress, But She's A Legacy Pick
While this is Madison and Gascón’s first tangle with the Oscars, Jolie has a long history with the Academy. This is similar to her other Best Actress contenders; Erivo was already nominated for Best Actress and Best Original Song for Harriet, and Kidman has been nominated for Best Actress a grand total of four times (she was nominated for Moulin Rouge!, Rabbit Hole, and Being the Ricardos, and she won for The Hours) and Best ing Actress once (for Lion). Jolie has been nominated in the Best Actress category before, but she’s only ever won for Best ing Actress.
Jolie beat out iconic actors like Toni Collette and Catherine Keener when she won Best ing Actress.
Jolie won Best ing Actress for Girl, Interrupted in 2000, and she was nominated for Best Actress for Changeling in 2009, but she lost to Kate Winslet for The Reader. She also won the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award in 2014. At this point, it seems clear that Jolie will be nominated for Maria, but it’s unclear if she’ll win. There is a legacy angle that might entice the Academy to vote for Jolie. 2025 could either be the year that Angelina Jolie finally wins Best Actress or the year she repeats the disappointment of her 2009 loss.
- Birthdate
- June 4, 1975
- Birthplace
- Los Angeles, California, USA
- Notable Projects
- Lara Croft: Tomb Raider
