How will coronavirus affect the Marvel Cinematic Universe? The coronavirus crisis is certain to affect every aspect of modern life. A globalized world is uniquely vulnerable to the threat of pandemic, and governments are desperate to tackle the disease. Some countries have resorted to extreme measures, with China and Italy imposing draconian controls to contain coronavirus. Other governments are more reluctant, with both the United States and the United Kingdom wary of this approach. The situation is evolving at speed; in a worst-case scenario, both the US and the U.K. are less than a fortnight behind the kind of epidemic seen in Italy.
The entertainment sector is going to be massively impacted. Peter Rabbit 2 delayed. Other studios are sure to follow suit.
Marvel Studios is one of the biggest success stories in Hollywood history, but their shared cinematic universe model leaves them particularly vulnerable. MGM can move No Time To Die with ease, but Marvel lack that kind of flexibility. Their interconnected universe means characters and plots shift from one film or TV series to another, and a decision to delay one film affects the entire slate. The next two years' worth of MCU adventures are suddenly in flux - and Marvel is in trouble.
Black Widow Is Too Late To Move
Marvel's will have a $115 million opening weekend in the United States, but projections could be significantly impacted by the spread of coronavirus. Making matters worse, Marvel had pitched Black Widow for a strong performance in the global box office, but it's impossible to say what state that will be in by May. If other countries follow the example of China and Italy, it will have a massive impact on Black Widow's performance. Travel bans are certainly going to make marketing difficult, and it's quite possible the premiere will be more sparsely attended than usual due to coronavirus fears.
Falcon & Winter Soldier Is In Trouble
Disney+'s production in Prague shut down due to the coronavirus outbreak. Much of the show was being shot in Atlanta, but the production was scheduled to spend a week in the capital of the Czech Republic. Presumably risk assessments changed when the city began to close down schools, cancel events, and restrict travel; Disney called everyone home to Atlanta, with no word on whether the House of Mouse plan to return at a later date, shoot on set, or perhaps even conduct a rewrite. Whatever Disney's intentions may be, Disney+'s schedule is pretty much locked through to the end of 2020. Disney can't afford disruption to the Disney+ rollout, which is already feeling a little lackluster, and has been overly dependent on Lucasfilm.
Eternals Is Dependent On Global Box Office
Marvel's Emerald City Comic Con was already postponed. The Eternals is one of the riskiest films in the Phase 4 slate, featuring characters with very low brand recognition, and Marvel can't afford a marketing fail.
As reported by the New York Times, most models from the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention suggest the worst of the disease will be over in the United States by The Eternals' release in November, come what may, but it's difficult to say whether normal viewing habits will resume if the worst projections come true. Furthermore, Eternals is dependent on the global box office, which will likely still be undergoing significant disruption. Marvel may choose to adjust Eternals' release date a little, but they'd probably prefer not to push it back too far; 2021 is already packed.
WandaVision Shouldn't Be Impacted To Much
Falcon & Winter Soldier may have problems, but fortunately WandaVision has already wrapped production, probably because it required less location shooting than its sister show. This may give Marvel Studios a little wriggle-room; they could choose to swap release dates, with WandaVision coming first and Falcon & Winter Soldier given a little more breathing space.
The Production Of Loki Is Going To Be Tight
The Loki Disney+ series is currently shooting in Atlanta, which means there's a significant risk of production delays. Coronavirus is spreading in Atlanta, with two schools closing after a teacher tested positive for coronavirus, potentially exposing some 150 students; it's only a matter of time before the virus reaches the studios.
There's expected to be a close relationship between Loki and the the Mjolnir of another timeline winds up in the mainstream MCU continuity, ready to be picked up by Natalie Portman's Jane Foster in Thor 4. Assuming these reports are correct, this show desperately needs to air before Thor 4 in order to maintain the MCU's narrative trajectory. Making matters worse, it's possible some cast - such as star Tom Hiddleston himself - will have parts in both productions. Delays will thus have a ripple effect.
Marvel Won't Want To Move Shang-Chi
Like Mulan, Shang-Chi & the Legend of the Ten Rings is a pitch at the Chinese market, which has seen the most disruption. While it's true reported new cases of coronavirus in China are dropping, that's due to the sheer scale of the measures the government has taken, and it's unclear whether that approach will simply draw the epidemic out. The Hubei-wide policy of virtually imprisoning people in their homes could have actually prevented the population building up antibodies and immunity; if so, when the strictures are lifted, the virus will return in force. Marvel will be hoping China's approach has succeeded, and further that their own production in Australia isn't disrupted by coronavirus; they're currently aiming for an opportune launch around Chinese New Year 2021, and won't want to sacrifice that.
Update: Shang-Chi's production has been put on hold due to coronavirus fears.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Could Be Delayed
Director Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and production was expected to begin fairly soon. There have been unconfirmed reports Marvel intend to shoot at Pinewood Studios in England, and so far the U.K. hasn't seen much disruption, so Marvel may be hoping to proceed as planned. It is likely, however, that they're considering contingencies in the event the U.K. is ultimately forced to implement an Italian-style lockdown; that may include delaying principal photography, and possibly even pushing back the release date.
Hawkeye Could Be Pushed Back
The expected to begin production in July, which is when many predict coronavirus will be at its worst in the United States. Marvel probably have a little room to maneuver with this one, given the Disney+ TV series isn't expected to release until Fall 2021, and there have been no reports of a strong link with any of that year's movies. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Hawkeye pushed back a little.
Thor: Love & Thunder's Production Could Be Delayed
Thor: Ragnarok. Coronavirus is another major problem, though, and is spreading through New South Wales. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this production pushed back.
Marvel & Sony Won't Want To Delay Spider-Man: Homecoming 3
Finally, Spider-Man: Far From Home took Tom Holland's version of Peter Parker on a European vacation, he's likely to be back in New York for the threequel. Production will no doubt be held back until its safe - but it will be a major corporate priority for Marvel.
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Coronavirus is a nightmare for Marvel Studios, in that it affects every aspect of filmmaking; production, marketing, and box office. Kevin Feige's team was already dealing with the pressure of a massively expanded workload, but now they have to factor a whole new level of complexity into their planning. Worse still, there is always the possibility one of Marvel's stars or key planners will come down with coronavirus; as such, it's impossible to correctly predict the level of disruption Marvel is about to endure. In truth, the current slate should now be regarded as preliminary, with major changes down the road.
