The 2022 Oscars brought a few big surprises at the ceremony through Best Picture winner CODA, Will Smith winning Best Actor directly after slapping Chris Rock on-stage, and Licorice Pizza winning zero awards, the 2023 Academy Awards is certain to include shocks that don’t align with the industry’s predicted winners.
Now that the official 2023 Oscars nominations have been announced, predictions beforehand about nominations and wins from similar award bodies like the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Satellite Awards gave greater indications as to how the Academy will vote. Across the board, some of the most frequent films favored to win or at least receive nominations at the Oscars include Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Here’s a breakdown of the films favored to win, along with who was actually nominated, in each of the 23 categories at the 2023 Oscars.
Best Picture
The front-runners for the most coveted award for the 2023 Oscars nominations were Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans. These three films have picked up several Best Picture (or equivalent) nods throughout the awards season, which have been translated to the Oscars. However, there are still several critically-beloved movies favored in the top 10 that could've taken home the award.
The Fabelmans won similar awards at TIFF People’s Choice, AFI Movies of the Year, and NBR, while receiving nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Likewise, the Irish The Banshees of Inisherin won at the NBI and was nominated at the Golden Globes, Satellite Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards. Everything Everywhere All at Once won a Best Picture equivalent at NBR, AFI Movies of the Year, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, plus nominations at the Gotham Awards, Golden Globes, Indie Spirits, and Critics’ Choice. Here's who was actually nominated:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Tár
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Elvis
9. Women Talking
10. Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor
The Best Actor category seemed to already be locked for nominations, but the winner is less clear. The most likely winners for Best Actor at the 2023 Oscars are Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, and Austin Butler for Elvis. Each of the favorites in the category has already been nominated for the award by other voting bodies, with Brendan Fraser winning at the TIFF Tribute Awards and Colin Farrell winning at the Venice Film Festival. Butler a won Best Actor award at the Golden Globes this season, and has been nominated by numerous groups, and has won several awards for Best Breakthrough Performance. Here's who was actually nominated for Best Actor.
1. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
2. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Austin Butler (Elvis)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Best Actress
The Best Actress award was more difficult to predict in recent years at the Academy Awards, but it would be surprising if the 2023 Oscar didn’t go to Cate Blanchett for her starring role in Tár. After Blanchett, the favorites to win Best Actress at the 2023 Oscars are Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans. These three actresses were all nominated for the same award at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and Gotham Awards, and have each won Best Actress equivalents from various award bodies this season. Here's who was actually nominated for Best Actress.
1. Cate Blanchett (Tár)
2. Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO)
3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
4. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
5. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Best Director
The Best Director award seems certain to be awarded to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans at the 2023 Oscars. After Spielberg, who won Best Director in 1994 for Schindler’s List, the favorites to win the award are the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin. These three nominees have already received Best Director nods at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, with Spielberg being awarded by the National Board of Review. Here are the 2023 Oscars nominations for Best Director.
1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (EEAAO)
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Todd Field (Tár)
5. Ruben Östland (Triangle of Sadness)
Best ing Actor
In the Best ing Actor category, the most likely performer to win the award at the 2023 Oscars is Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which served as his triumphant return to the big screen. The other favorites in the category are Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin. Quan has already won the equivalent of this award from the NYFCC, LAFCA, and Gotham Awards, with Gleeson being awarded by the National Board of Review. Here are the official 2023 Oscar nominations for Best ing Actor:
1. Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO)
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Best ing Actress
The favorite to win the Best ing Actress award at the 2023 Oscars is Kerry Condon for her performance in The Banshees of Inisherin. In addition to Condon, the favored winners in this category are Scream Queen Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Condon received the equivalent SBIFF Virtuoso Award, with Curtis winning the SBIFF Maltin Modern Master Award. Here are the actual 2023 Oscar nominations for Best ing actress
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (EEAAO)
3. Hong Chau (The Whale)
4. Stephanie Hsu (EEAAO)
5. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Best Cinematography
The Best Cinematography award is truly up for grabs at the 2023 Academy Awards, though the most probable winner is Elvis, beating out Tom Cruise's Top Gun sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, and The Fabelmans, which despite being favored winners weren't even nominated. The front-runners have all received several nominations and wins in the category throughout the season, including Best Cinematography nods for all three from the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. However, the actual 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Cinematography proved to be very different than predicted.
1. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
2. Elvis
3. Empire of Light
4. Tár
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature Film
Following Encanto’s win at the 2022 Oscars, the animated film slated to win in the same category at the 2023 award ceremony is Guillermo del Toro’s critically acclaimed Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which means it’s likely that the winner won’t be based on an original screenplay. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio received equivalent awards from the LAFCA and CFCA, and all three animated films were nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Animated Feature Film.
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4. Turning Red
5. The Sea Beast
Best Animated Short Film
The predicted most likely winner for Best Animated Short Film at the 2023 Academy Awards is New Moon, which won the same award at the Chicago International Children’s Film Festival, SCAD Savannah Film Festival, and French Riviera Film Festival. Taika Waititi’s Save Ralph and Apple TV’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse also had high odds to win the award, with the former having won the prestigious Grand Prix for Good award at the Cannes Lions Awards. Save Ralph, however, didn't make the cut. Some surprising 2023 Oscar nominations were made instead.
1. Ice Merchants
2. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
3. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
4. The Flying Sailor
5. My Year of Dicks
Best International Feature Film
The Best International Feature Film could have some overlap with the Best Picture category at the 2023 Oscars, as ’s torytelling through costume design, eventually wasn't nominated) and Close. All three films were nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Hollywood Critics Association Awards, with Close having won the Grand Prix award at the Cannes Film Festival. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best International Feature Film:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front ()
2. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
3. Close (Belgium)
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
5. EO (Poland)
