Months before the 98th Cannes have already got the ball rolling on the inevitable nominations for the next Academy Awards. There are some big-name films already slated for release that are picking up steam for that race, like Dwayne Johnson's dramatic turn in the sports biopic, The Smashing Machine.

Other potential wildcards also exist on the docket for the year's theatrical releases, including Daniel Day-Lewis' return to the big screen after eight years in the father/son drama Anemone. Both actors have a certain amount of natural momentum behind them, fueling the kind of narratives that often propel stars in the award season race. However, The Smashing Machine and Anemone will also be facing off months before the 98th Academy Awards are held, with implications that could impact the entire state of the Best Actor race.

Daniel Day-Lewis' Anemone & Dwayne Johnson's The Smashing Machine Come Out On The Same Day

They Both Have Oscars Hopes

Anemone and The Smashing Machine are both expected to be front-runners for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, but they'll be going directly head-to-head before that because they're being released on the same day. With Cannes in full swing, conversation has begun to generate about the likely contenders for categories like Best Actor. Timothée Chalamet, Denzel Washington, and Leonardo DiCaprio are among the expected contenders, but two of the most likely nominees are Dwayne Johnson and Daniel Day-Lewis.

Both films look to be powerful dramas with strong lead performances. While The Smashing Machine explores some familiar ground in the sports drama space, Johnson and the cast surrounding him look impressive in the trailer for the film. By contrast, little is known about Anemone beyond it being Daniel Day-Lewis' first film performance in almost a decade and that he co-wrote the film alongside his son Ronan (who also directed the film). Both movies are being released amid the typical award season period of the year, and even come out on the same day, setting them up as natural rivals.

Daniel Day-Lewis Is A Decorated Oscar Veteran, But Dwayne Johnson Is Far From It

Daniel Day-Lewis And Dwayne Johnson Have Very Different Award Season Narratives

All of that sets up a natural rivalry between the two films and their leading actors, Daniel Day-Lewis and Dwayne Johnson. It's also an interesting contrast between two very different Oscar narratives. Day-Lewis is often considered one of the finest actors of his generation, with a body of award-nominated work that stretches back decades. Dwayne Johnson got his start in the world of wrestling before moving into film, gradually becoming a box office behemoth and genuine movie star (who nevertheless has never earned the kind of critical accolades of his co-stars).

Day-Lewis is a six-time Best Actor nominee and has taken home three Oscars for his work over the years. Johnson has never been a serious contender for the award, with most of his films leaning far more into the blockbuster space than the typical awards fare. This naturally creates a compelling narrative behind both actors, which can often be the secret ingredient to pushing a nominee over the others during award season. The fact that both movies are coming out at the same time invites natural comparison and competition between the two at the box office.

Daniel Day-Lewis & Dwayne Johnson's Showdown Will Likely Impact The Oscars 2026 Best Actor Race

The Success (Or Failure) Of Anemone And The Smashing Machine Could Change The State Of Award Season

There's little chance Anemone will beat The Smashing Machine at the box office, as the film's initially limited theatrical release will likely pale in comparison to the wider release of the A24-backed The Smashing Machine. However, word-of-mouth from those limited releases might be enough to propel it into a much better position when it releases nationwide on October 10. However, if The Smashing Machine becomes a critical and commercial hit, it might suck all the air out of the room before Anemone has a chance to really cement itself as an award contender.

October 3, 2025, is looking to be a big day in the lead-up to the 98th Oscars.

Both films will be heavily reliant on the critical reception, as generating awards buzz is clearly an intention behind the October release. Day-Lewis is coming into the Oscar race with pedigree and respect that few others in the industry can match, and the Academy might want to celebrate one of their finest actors one more time. However, the Academy might also see the appeal in celebrating a bona fide movie star finally turning his charisma and skill inwards towards a more complex character. October 3, 2025, is looking to be a big day in the lead-up to the 98th Oscars.