The 2020 Oscars nominations announcement is just around the corner, so here are all the nominees (and potential winners) to expect. 2019 was an excellent year for cinema, one that sparked many conversations about the medium’s future and the place of the so-called Oscar movie in the blockbuster age. After a Green Book), it’s no wonder Oscar nerds and critics alike are simultaneously amped up and trepidatious for the coming awards.
This year, however, is very different. The front-runners for Oscar nominations include a whodunnit murder mystery, an adaptation of a literary classic, a Hollywood epic from a beloved auteur, a heart-breaking relationship drama, a comic book villain’s origin reimagined as a grimy prestige drama, a comedy featuring an imaginary Hitler, and a universally beloved Korean satire.
Hearts will be broken come Oscar nomination morning, but the chances are that at least one thing you loved will be recognized in some form. With that in mind, we’re taking a look at who we expect to be nominated at the 2020 Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
- 1917
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Knives Out
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
The Best Picture category has the potential for 10 nominees, but due to the weighted ballot and minimum vote requirement for qualifying, it’s been a few years since the Academy filled out every spot. Still, we’re looking at the possibility of a full ballot, especially since 2019 offered so much in of choice. The 10 films listed represent not only the most acclaimed and commercially successful movies of the season but the most talked-about titles, and buzz is just as important for Oscar glory as reviews and box office. These are Parasite, which is astoundingly good and an excellent chance to reverse decades of snobbery towards films not in the English language (director Bong Joon-ho has also proven very popular on the campaigning circuit this season).
WHO WILL WIN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
WHO SHOULD WIN: Parasite
DON’T WRITE OFF: 1917
BEST DIRECTOR
- Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
- Sam Mendes - 1917
- Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
- Todd Phillips – Joker
- Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sadly, it'll likely be yet another all-male Best Director category (although hopefully that's one wrong prediction). This has proven especially tragic this season because the choices available for voters are plentiful and deserving of attention: Lorene Scafaria for Jojo Rabbit. The Academy likes to award the director who did the most difficult work of the season, and there’s certainly tough competition for that this year, but Sam Mendes’ Golden Globe win gives him a big advantage right now, as does Tarantino’s status as an icon (one without a Best Director trophy to his name, something Mendes already has). Over the past decade or so, the Academy has been happy to split Director and Picture between two movies, so if Tarantino is a favorite for Best Picture, that only benefits Mendes further.
WHO WILL WIN: Sam Mendes
WHO SHOULD WIN: Bong Joon-ho
DON’T WRITE OFF: Quentin Tarantino
BEST ACTOR
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Taron Egerton - Rocketman
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Best Actor could be filled out three or four times with potential and worthy nominees and there would still be some painful cuts made, be it Robert De Niro in Dolemite is My Name. The competition is that good this year. Driver and Phoenix are locks, with the latter currently the front-runner thanks to his Golden Globe win for Joker and a strong narrative that he’s due a victory. Egerton’s own Globe win helps him out a lot, as does Elton John’s feverish campaigning in his honor, while DiCaprio is DiCaprio and being the star of the Best Picture frontrunner can only help him. Banderas has never been nominated before and he would certainly deserve an Oscar for his work in Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory, but for him, a nomination would probably be the win itself. Joaquin Phoenix has an acclaimed performance on his side in Joker, one of the highest-grossing movies of the year, as well as a lifetime of work in the industry (he’s been acting since he was nine), mountains of respect from his colleagues, and the honorable status as one of the best actors of his generation. A win is not set in stone, however, as his hesitation towards the campaigning process may hinder his victory, which would open the door for the critics’ darling, Adam Driver. Still, actors seldom actually win for their best performance and if Phoenix taking home an Oscar is the equivalent of a lifetime achievement award, it would be well deserved.
WHO WILL WIN: Joaquin Phoenix
WHO SHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix/Antonio Banderas
DON’T WRITE OFF: Adam Driver
BEST ACTRESS
- Awkwafina – The Farewell
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
Best Actress is another category with some tough cuts to make. In a just year, there would be room for Lupita Nyong'o and her career-best work in Judy Garland in a movie where she does all her own singing. There’s a real excitement around Zellweger’s comeback after several years out of the spotlight which could also greatly help her. She had the toughest job out of the possible nominees and the Academy loves to reward that.
WHO WILL WIN: Renee Zellweger
WHO SHOULD WIN: Saoirse Ronan
DON’T WRITE OFF: Charlize Theron
BEST ING ACTOR
- Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- Al Pacino – The Irishman
- Joe Pesci – The Irishman
- Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Song Kang-ho – Parasite
The nominees for the acting categories are voted on by the Screen Actors Guild, so big name recognition and industry buzz greatly help. Hanks, Pacino, and Pitt are utterly beloved by their colleagues and all appeared in big roles in big movies. Hanks played Mr. Rogers while Pacino played Jimmy Hoffa. Joe Pesci turned in one of the year’s best performances in The Irishman, to the point where it felt like he’d never gone away or stopped acting. It’s much quieter than what audiences expect from Pesci, and that may hurt his chances in a category with big work. Brad Pitt, however, has the best narrative: The Hollywood hunk turned respected character actor and beloved producer with pure, unadulterated star power. A true surprise would be for Song Kang-ho, the legendary South Korean actor, to receive a nomination for Parasite, especially if the film’s buzz carries over into other categories (think of Marina de Tavira’s surprise Best ing Actress nomination for Roma last year.)
WHO WILL WIN: Brad Pitt
WHO SHOULD WIN: Joe Pesci
DON’T WRITE OFF: Tom Hanks
BEST ING ACTRESS
- Laura Dern – Marriage Story
- Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
- Florence Pugh – Little Women
- Margot Robbie – Bombshell
- Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell
Laura Dern seems to have had this award all locked up since Little Women as well as one of the most buzzed-about young actresses currently working thanks to films like Midsommar. Chinese actress Zhao Shuzhen has charmed and broken audiences’ hearts in The Farewell but could prove the most vulnerable nominee here, especially with Scarlett Johansson possibly primed for a double nomination with Jojo Rabbit.
WHO WILL WIN: Laura Dern
WHO SHOULD WIN: Laura Dern
DON’T WRITE OFF: Margot Robbie
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- The Two Popes
Steve Zaillian had the unenviable job of turning a possibly true but probably made-up story about gangsters and hitmen into a three and a half-hour drama that doesn't lag for a second, and he pulled that off with aplomb in The Irishman. If Taika Waititi and Greta Gerwig miss out on director nominations, celebrating them in the screenplay category would be a smart move. Anthony McCarten, the screenwriter of The Two Popes, has written three previous Best Picture nominees and has a way of landing awards attention, which certainly doesn't hurt. Joker, meanwhile, has the buzz in its favor that can't be ignored.
WHO WILL WIN: The Irishman
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Irishman
DON’T WRITE OFF: Little Women
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- The Farewell
- Knives Out
- Marriage Story
- Parasite
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumbach has the critics’ favor in his corner for Netflix’s Marriage Story, which may be his best film out of a career of great work. The competition is tough, with two-time screenplay winner Quentin Tarantino right behind him, as well as Rian Johnson’s brilliant work in Knives Out. Lulu Wang’s The Farewell, based on her own family, is tender and deftly drawn in a way that deserves attention but may be overlooked in favor of the bigger names, while Parasite’s screenplay is receiving far less attention than its direction but is worthy of far more praise. There are no unworthy winners here.
WHO WILL WIN: Marriage Story
WHO SHOULD WIN: Knives Out
DON’T WRITE OFF: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 1917
- The Irishman
- Joker
- The Lighthouse
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
After many years of being snubbed by the Academy, the legendary The Lighthouse (a movie that really should be receiving more awards attention than it's getting) and its vintage-style aesthetic is entirely up the Academy's alley.
WHO WILL WIN: 1917
WHO SHOULD WIN: 1917
DON’T WRITE OFF: Joker
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Dolemite is My Name
- Downton Abbey
- Little Women
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Rocketman
The costume design category is typically defined by its love for lavish historical design and bombastic costuming. There’s plenty of that to choose from this year, be it the Elton John fashions of Rocketman or the recreation of 1960s Los Angeles style in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Downton Abbey ticks all the boxes for period drama clothing, while Dolemite is My Name benefits from the name of Ruth E. Carter, who won in this category last year for Black Panther. The voters in this category don’t usually go for subtlety, so that could work in Rocketman’s favor (Elton John never did subtlety either).
WHO WILL WIN: Rocketman
WHO SHOULD WIN: Dolemite is My Name
DON’T WRITE OFF: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
