While The Simpsons Movie. The Simpsons Movie arrived long after the height of the TV show’s success. The so-called Golden Age of The Simpsons ended around season 11 or 12 at a generous estimate, while The Simpsons Movie did not arrive in theaters until the show was entering season 18. That said, The Simpsons is now on season 34, proving the show was nowhere near its ending when The Simpsons Movie released in 2007, despite its critical decline.
In February 2023, The Simpsons was renewed for 2 more seasons, which inevitably reignited conversations about another potential movie spinoff. While The Simpsons Movie 2 might happen, however, there is very little chance that the sequel will be able to recreate the box office impact of the original movie. The economic landscape of TV and cinema has changed massively since 2007 and a confluence of factors, from Disney’s ownership of The Simpsons to the underperformance of recent comparable titles, prove that The Simpsons Movie 2 would not reach the record-setting heights of its predecessor.
Why The Simpsons Movie 2 (Probably) Can’t Beat The Original
Upon its 2007 release, The Simpsons Movie made a staggering $537 million at the box office. The outing was also well-reviewed, earning comparisons to the best episodes of The Simpsons, but its box office impact was The Simpsons Movie’s biggest surprise. The movie was the second most successful traditionally animated movie in cinema history, and one of the most successful non-Disney animated movies ever made. While ittedly a spinoff of a smaller series, the performance of The Bob’s Burgers Movie - another Fox animated family sitcom - does not bode well for The Simpsons Movie 2. The Bob’s Burgers Movie earned only $34 million on a budget of $38 million in 2022.
The Bob’s Burgers Movie’s failure to break even at the box office is a testament to the effect of the marketing push that The Simpsons Movie benefited from. While The Simpsons is undoubtedly a more famous series than Bob’s Burgers, its fan base has dwindled since 2007, with the contemporary weekly ratings of The Simpsons matching those of Bob’s Burgers. Despite The Simpsons season 34 breaking show rules and making risky storytelling choices, the series is no longer the cultural phenomenon that it was at the height of its popularity. The Simpsons does not even have the cultural clout the cartoon family still enjoyed in 2007 thanks to an inconsistent 15 years on TV.
Disney Makes The Simpsons Movie 2 Matching The Original Unlikely
Since Disney owns The Simpsons, the studio would likely apply the same approach it used for The Bob’s Burgers Movie when distributing The Simpsons Movie 2. Fox treated The Simpsons Movie as a huge summer blockbuster in 2007, which was instrumental in its success. In contrast, Disney’s strategy for The Bob’s Burgers Movie involved a brief theater run and a swift Disney+ release. Given how even Pixar movies struggle to avoid a Disney+ premiere, it seems unlikely The Simpsons Movie 2 under Disney's umbrella would get the same push the original did in 2007.
Despite The Simpsons season 34 receiving critical acclaim, it is unlikely that Disney would trust the franchise to match its earlier financial success at the box office. As such, another cinematic outing for The Simpsons is unlikely to make as much money as The Simpsons Movie, even if The Simpsons Movie 2 does happen. Combined with its dwindling audience and faltering reputation, new ownership means The Simpsons Movie 2 would have little chance of matching the original's financial feats.