After a series of spring blockbuster flops, experts explain the strong rebound at the summer box office. Following the dual WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes last year, the 2024 blockbuster slate got off to a strong start with the acclaimed Dune: Part Two, but other films in the spring fell far short of expectations, including The Fall Guy and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. The failure of these films sparked panic, but the summer box office has since experienced a comeback with movies like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, among others.

A recent piece from THR features interviews with several box office experts, who dive into this surprising changing of the tides. Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian criticizes the over-reaction that tends to occur after high-profile releases flop, stressing that the industry is "resilient" despite the 10.4% drop in box office revenue in 2024 compared to 2023. Read his full comment below:

“The reversal of fortune for theaters in the middle months of the summer season was astonishing and a lesson in how unpredictable and yet resilient this industry has always proven itself to be despite the negative Chicken Little prognostications that occur every time there is a box office downturn."

Daniel Loria, an analyst at Box Office Pro, breaks the box office down by studio, highlighting Disney as the major winner of the summer. Paramount, too, found success with A Quiet Place: Day One, as did Sony with Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Warner Bros., by contrast, had some notable let-downs:

“Nearly every studio saw several summer releases overperform box office expectations across different ratings and genres throughout the rest of the summer. Disney takes the headline with Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine and Alien: Romulus. Universal found success with Despicable Me 4 and Twisters. Paramount saw great returns from A Quiet Place: Day One and recovered from an iffy opening weekend for IF to see that title leg out to $100 million-plus. Sony book-ended the summer with hits like Bad Boys: Ride or Die which fell just short of $200 million domestically and the late summer hit It Ends with Us.

“Warner Bros. had a significantly more low-key slate in 2024 than it did in the Barbie summer of 2023. Furiosa could’ve done better, even if the [Mad] Max [movies] have never been box office behemoths. Horizon couldn’t find its audience theatrically, while genre replacements like the Shyamalan(s)-led thrillers The Watchers and Trap performed modestly without having the weight of being huge earners for the studio.”

Box Office Theory analyst Shawn Robbins offers more insight into general trends in the industry, explaining that there have been notable shifts in recent years, including the box office lows generally being lower than they were pre-pandemic. Still, though, he has confidence that the strong summer showing will continue into the fall, stressing that the last few months are an example of the natural "ebb and flow" of the industry:

“The valleys have been more pronounced in recent years, and we continue to see shifting consumer habits impact certain types of films. Overall though, the back half of this lucrative season, anchored by a variety of crowd-pleasing hits, started delivering the kind of consistent box office winners this industry has been yearning for. That trend is poised to continue through fall, with a stronger post-summer release slate than we’ve seen since before the pandemic.”

“There’s no doubt the summer box office is going out on a higher note than it began. In this industry, there’s always an ebb and flow.

What The Box Office Upturn Means For The Movie Industry

Movies Like Inside 2 & Deadpool & Wolverine Are A Positive Sign

Especially after the pandemic, movie-goers today are generally more picky about what films are worth going to the theaters for. In order for a film to succeed, movies generally need to feel eventized in some way or have a viral component that hooks audiences. Longlegs, for example, which was made on an estimated budget of less than $10 million, has now made over $102 million at the worldwide box office due to its powerful viral marketing campaign.

There was understandably worry after The Fall Guy (estimated budget of $125 million) made only $180 million worldwide and Furiosa (estimated budget of $168 million) flopped with only $173 million worldwide. The former, however, was made for too much money given its genre, and the latter affirmed what previous Mad Max movies already hinted at, which is that it's a relatively niche franchise.

2015's Mad Max: Fury Road was critically acclaimed but was a modest box office success at best, grossing $379 million worldwide.

Movies like Inside Out 2 ($1.667 billion) and Deadpool & Wolverine ($1.262 billion) cement that there is still a great deal of interest in the theatrical experience under the right circumstances. If movies like the Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Gladiator 2 can feel eventized and like must-see entertainment, they could end up continuing this strong summer trend.

Our Take On The Strong Summer 2024 Box Office

Theatrical Movies Aren't Dying

It's undeniable that the movie industry is evolving, and, as Robbins says, the lows are now lower than they were in the 2000s and 2010s. Instead of mourning the death of the theatrical movie business when a film like Furiosa underperforms, however, it's probably better to view it as part of a larger trend of natural highs and lows. There will undoubtedly be more flops to come, potentially maybe even in 2024, but there will also undoubtedly be some big wins and fan-favorite cinematic events.

Source: THR