Deadpool & Wolverine was a massive hit, grossing over $1 billion, but Captain America: Brave New World didn't reach the same heights.
Thunderbolts* has high expectations, especially since Marvel only has this and Fantastic Four before Avengers: Doomsday. The studio needs to drum up excitement before the next massive crossover event. Fortunately, Thunderbolts* has an excellent cast of characters, many returning from previous movies and shows, while there are also some new faces, like Lewis Pullman's Sentry. The main cast of characters could be enough to draw audiences to theaters, but Marvel will need more for the film to break even.
Marvel's Thunderbolts* Budget Could Be Between $150-$200 Million
Thunderbolts* Has A Large But Standard Budget For An MCU Movie
According to Forbes, no outlet has officially reported the budget for Thunderbolts*, but it wouldn't be surprising if the film had a production budget "in the $150 million to $200 million range." The cost of blockbuster films has risen in recent years, making it harder for them to break even. Marvel has been producing many projects at this cost, perhaps even higher. If Thunderbolts* is within that range, it would be within the average production cost for an MCU film before marketing and advertising, perhaps even on the lower side of other films.
For example, Brave New World cost around $180 million. Still expensive, but more modest in comparison to The Marvels, which was made for $270 million. Ant-Man 3 also cost a pretty penny, with a budget that reportedly came in at $388.4 million. Marvel's lofty budgets have become costly for the studio, especially for many of its streaming programs, like Secret Invasion and She-Hulk: Attorney At Law, which will never make their money back since there are no box office returns.
How Much Thunderbolts* Needs For Box Office Success
Thunderbolts* Doesn't Need To Break Records To Be A Success
Movies typically need to double their production budget to start making a profit. If the estimated budget is accurate, this means Thunderbolts* would need to make between $300-$400 million to be successful. However, that number likely needs to be increased, as there are marketing and advertising numbers that aren't always reported with the overall budget. For example, Brave New World made $414 million worldwide, making it a moderate success based on its reported budget.
If Thunderbolts* has a budget within the same range as the previous Marvel film, then it could be considered a success if it makes around the same amount. However, Marvel is obviously hoping it makes more than that so the studio can get a better return on investment. The film's box office would mainly be a failure if it doesn't make back its budget at all. The Marvels was a massive box office flop for Marvel, only making $206 million worldwide, falling well below its budget.
How Much Thunderbolts* Is Projected To Make At The Box Office
Thunderbolts* Could Perform Well Depending On Reviews And Audience Reactions
Current box office projections aren't promising for Thunderbolts*. According to Brave New World's opening of $88 million but above The Marvels' $47 million. The bigger question is what the following weeks will look like for the film, and could its projections be improved by positive reactions from audiences and critics?
Brave New World and The Marvels had mixed reactions, leading to massive drops in their second weekends. However, Thunderbolts* is receiving good reviews, currently holding a 91% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes based on 79 reviews. If word-of-mouth from audiences is strong, it could lead to great legs at the box office, potentially increasing from its initial projections. For example, Sinners only suffered a 6% drop in its second weekend, thanks to excellent reviews from audiences and critics. If reviews for Thunderbolts* hold strong, then the film could get a boost to its box office throughout its theatrical run.
Thunderbolts*
- Release Date
- April 30, 2025
- Runtime
- 127 minutes
- Director
- Jake Schreier
- Writers
- Eric Pearson, Lee Sung-jin
- Producers
- Scarlett Johansson, Jason Tamez
Cast
Bucky Barnes
Yelena Belova
- Franchise(s)
- Marvel Cinematic Universe
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