Box Office (Sunday Update) - Thunderbolts* Debuting Below Captain America: Brave New World, Sinners Crosses 2 Major Milestones In A Single Day

Name: Sinners
Genre: Horror

By Brennan Klein

Updated May 4, 2025

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UPDATE: 2025/05/04 08:11 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Thunderbolts* Heads Toward The Upper Bound Of Its Projections With $76 Million

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Sinners release. The Ryan Coogler-directed Michael B. Jordan horror movie premiered with the best-ever Easter weekend debut for an R-rated movie.

Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Thunderbolts* is projected to have a 3-day opening weekend that hits $76 million at the domestic box office. Its global opening weekend is also estimated to earn $162.1 million. While this sees it drawing close to matching its $180 million budget, it falls below the debut of the year's previous MCU movie, Captain America: Brave New World, which had an $88.8 million domestic debut and a $192.4 million global debut.

Meanwhile, Sinners has continued to show outstanding audience hold, especially for a horror movie. While it has been knocked from its perch at No. 1 by the arrival of Thunderbolts*, it is currently projected to gross a 3-day total of $33 million at the domestic box office during its third weekend in theaters, which represents an astonishingly narrow drop of 28%. It previously had the second-smallest week 2 drop for an R-rated horror movie in history.

Sinners has also crossed two major milestones in a single day, with its Friday actuals of $9.5 million in North America pushing its cumulative domestic total past the $150 million milestone and its $2.7 million international gross sending its global total past $200 million. Its projections also show it hitting a cumulative domestic total of $181 million by the end of the weekend, surging past the $175 million domestic milestone as well. Below, see the full Top 5 domestic chart for the weekend:

#	Title	3-Day Total	Cumulative (Domestic)
1	Thunderbolts*	$76 million	$76 million (weekend 1)
2	Sinners	$33 million	$181 million (weekend 3)
3	A Minecraft Movie	$13.5 million	$398 million (weekend 5)
4	The ant 2	$9.45 million	$41 million (weekend 2)
5	Until Dawn	$3.8 million	$14.3 million (weekend 2)

Although Sinners is relinquishing its place atop the chart after spending two consecutive weekends at No. 1, there has not been a considerable amount of movement among the holdover titles in the Top 5. However, A Minecraft Movie did swap places with The ant 2 during its fifth weekend, as the video game adaptation only dropped 41% while the Ben Affleck action sequel fell a sizable 61%. Meanwhile, Until Dawn maintained its fifth place spot with a 53% drop, which is not uncommonly large for week 2 of a horror movie.

This is the case because the previous weekend's No. 2 title, the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, has dropped from the Top 5. This absence is not shocking, because it was only intended to have a week-long run. While it is still playing in some theaters, its presence has been severely diminished. Disney, which owns both Lucasfilm and Marvel Studios, seems to have wanted to leave the path clear for Thunderbolts*.

What This Means For Thunderbolts*

It May Not Turn A Profit In Theaters

Even if the Thunderbolts* release had debuted at the lower end of its projections, it would have still become the 11th highest-grossing movie of the year so far worldwide over the course of just three days. However, the fact that it has fallen behind the debut of Captain America: Brave New World is probably not a good sign. Movies generally need to earn back two and a half times their budgets in theaters in order to break even, and because both movies reportedly cost $180 million, this would most likely place both movies' break-even points somewhere around $450 million.

Break-even points are so high because theaters keep half of ticket sales and marketing costs are not factored into production budgets.

Captain America failed to hit that milestone, only grossing $414.8 million at the worldwide box office by the end of its run. If it stays on a trajectory similar to its predecessor, the new installment may only end up grossing roughly $360 million worldwide, a total that would make it the third lowest-grossing MCU movie behind The Marvels and The Incredible Hulk. However, Thunderbolts* reviews have been stronger, earning it an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score with a 95% audience score compared to Captain America's 48% and 78%, which could translate to stronger word of mouth and an improved audience hold.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Thunderbolts* Still Has A Chance To Grow

Ultimately, both Thunderbolts* and Sinners have a clear path forward, at least for one more weekend. The former could regain some ground and the latter could continue its streak of narrow drops quite easily, as May 9 only sees a few smaller new releases, such as Fight or Flight and Clown in a Cornfield, coming to theaters ahead of the debut of the franchise horror movie Final Destination: Bloodlines on May 16, which will be followed by the one-two punch of the blockbusters Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning and the live-action Lilo & Stitch on May 23.

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Source: Variety