UPDATE: 2025/05/11 08:05 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Thunderbolts* Still Takes No. 1 With One Of The MCU's Best Week 2 Drops, But Is Falling Short Of Original $35 Million Projections

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Thunderbolts* release kicked off somewhat inauspiciously with a $74.3 million debut that landed below the previous installment, Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8 million).

Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Thunderbolts* is projected to close out its sophomore weekend with a 3-day total of $33.1 million at the domestic box office, which would give it a week-on-week drop of 55%. This is more than enough for it to take No. 1 for the second weekend in a row, because it doesn't face any major competition from new wide releases.

Additionally, this is set to be one of the smallest drops in the history of the MCU. Its previous projections saw it ending up with the eighth-best week 2 drop of the entire franchise, beating out the billion-dollar hit Deadpool & Wolverine (-54.2%), but it is now projected to settle just outside the franchise's Top 10. Meanwhile, the Ryan Coogler horror movie Sinners has continued to show even slimmer drops, falling just 31% and retaining its place at No. 2 on the chart. See the full domestic Top 5 for the weekend below:

With a dearth of major new wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, the entire Top 4 has remained the same as the previous weekend. The video game adaptation A Minecraft Movie stayed at No. 3 while the belated Ben Affleck action sequel The ant 2 continued to trail behind at No. 4, though it had a slim 36% drop during its third weekend. The only new addition is the slasher movie Clown in a Cornfield, which has debuted at No. 5, knocking out the previous weekend's No. 5 horror movie, Until Dawn, which is now in its third weekend.

This is good news for Clown in a Cornfield, which reportedly cost less than $1 million, meaning that it has seemingly already more than tripled its budget. However, the other new releases have not fared quite so well.

The other two major new releases, the Josh Hartnett action comedy Fight or Flight and the Kerry Washington espionage thriller Shadow Force, are currently neck and neck for No. 8 with grosses of roughly $2 million apiece. The budget of Fight or Flight has not yet been reported, but Shadow Force reportedly cost $40 million, putting it in a significantly worse position than the low-budget Clown in a Cornfield.

What This Means For Thunderbolts*

It Could Become A Sleeper Success

The current projections for Thunderbolts* could fluctuate slightly by the end of the weekend, and it will land on the Top 10 chart if it drops less than 54.2%. Regardless, it is securely at the lower end of the MCU, which has week 2 drops that range between the 44.7% dip of Black Panther (which is the seventh highest-grossing movie in the franchise) and the devastating 78.1% fall of The Marvels (which is the lowest-grossing installment). Below, see a breakdown of the 10 smallest week 2 drops for MCU movies ahead of the release of the new 2025 installment:

This slim drop is very good news for the movie, because the reported Thunderbolts* budget of $180 million exactly matches the price tag of Captain America: Brave New World, which has so far failed to hit its estimated break-even point of $450 million, only grossing $415 million at the time of writing. However, the new movie's smaller drop sees it catching up with Captain America, which had a higher opening weekend total but a significantly lower sophomore weekend haul of $28.2 million after a brutal 68.3% stumble, which was one of the biggest drops in the franchise.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Thunderbolts* Streak At No. 1 Is About To End

Thunderbolts* is now more firmly on the path toward profitability, but it remains to be seen if it can maintain its streak at No. 1 for a third consecutive weekend. Its first major wide release competition is the Final Destination: Bloodlines, which debuts on May 16. Per Box Office Theory, the sixth installment in the iconic horror franchise is currently projected to debut with more than $30 million, so it seems highly likely to beat out the Marvel movie for the No. 1 slot, because a third weekend drop low enough to avoid that fate is essentially unprecedented.

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Source: Variety & Box Office Theory