Warning: spoilers ahead for The Walking Dead Season 11, Episode 18.Courtesy of Lance Hornsby, the CRM's return in The Walking Dead: World Beyond also blamed the CRM for destroying at least two communities harboring populations into the tens of thousands.
Given how no large group seems to exist in The Walking Dead without the CRM knowing, speculation over possible links to the Commonwealth has been rife since Pamela Milton's merry mob debuted at the end of season 10. Those theories gained momentum when Pamela's right-hand man, Lance Hornsby, was revealed as a secretive CIA type with deep undercover connections - connections into the exact same murky realm the CRM operate within. The Walking Dead season 11, episode 18 ("A New Deal") all but confirms Lance and the CRM are in cahoots.
The Walking Dead's Commonwealth-CRM Tease Explained
Honoring her arrangement with Carol, Pamela Milton has Lance arrested on charges of murder, covering up crimes that were actually committed by her son, Sebastian. This is evidently the first time Pamela and Lance have seriously fallen out since the Commonwealth was founded, as Lance can't quite believe his boss is being serious. Once he realizes she is serious, Lance ominously warns, "If something happens to me, certain alliances the Commonwealth has - certain stabilizing factors - are likely to become a problem." Surely, Lance is referring to the Civic Republic Military here.
The CRM doesn't exist in Robert Kirkman's original comic books - the Commonwealth is the largest known community on that map. On TV, however, the CRM reigns supreme, and has shown a pretty low tolerance for other large settlements, wiping out both Campus Colony (10,000 citizens) and Omaha (97,000 citizens) in The Walking Dead: World Beyond. Whereas Alexandria, Hilltop, Oceanside, etc. are probably too small to on the CRM's radar, the Commonwealth definitely isn't, raising the question of how Pamela Milton's domain has lasted this long without a visit from black-clad soldiers. Lance's line in The Walking Dead season 11, episode 18 answers that point - the Commonwealth and CRM have an understanding. By "stabilizing factors" you could even infer the CRM is allowing the Commonwealth to continue existing.
From Lance's tease, it sounds like whoever these mystery allies might be, they're loyal to him rather than the Commonwealth's leader, Pamela Milton. That's an odd arrangement for an alliance, but makes sense if Lance is talking about the CRM. The Civic Republic's purpose-built military unit is populated by many survivors who occupied similar positions before the outbreak - attachés, marines, etc. With his CIA connections and secret agents, Lance Hornsby speaks their language. Pamela Milton - a glorified figurehead and pampered politician - does not. It's possible that all between the CRM and Commonwealth has gone through Lance, and that their relationship will break down without him.
The Walking Dead's CRM Tease Would Explain A Big Season 11 Mystery
Connie's list of vanished Commonwealth citizens has provided The Walking Dead season 11 with an overriding mystery. Sebastian's death-house ed for some of those missing persons, but Rosita stated, "There are way more names on this list than Sebastian sent into that house... There's something else going on here." The disappeared Commonwealthers remain unexplained, therefore - but perhaps not for long if Lance Hornsby has a hidden CRM deal up his sleeve.
The Civic Republic Military doesn't ally with other settlements for friendship and unity - the Commonwealth must've offered something useful in exchange for the CRM's "stability." The Walking Dead previously revealed how Jadis and the Scavengers would supply the CRM with kidnaped survivors (like Heath) which were then used as zombie experiment subjects in the secret research facility from The Walking Dead: World Beyond. In return for not being wiped off the map, the Commonwealth might've offered a regular supply of fresh bodies, which s for Connie's big list of residents who vanished suddenly.
The Commonwealth's arrangement with the CRM could explain why Lance sounds so confident the alliance falls apart without him. Pamela obviously would've left her right-hand man to abduct those residents and arrange transport to the CRM. With Lance gone, the CRM doesn't receive its payment, and that spells trouble for the Commonwealth.
Lance's CRM Comment Changes The Walking Dead's Ending
As mentioned already, the CRM isn't a thing in The Walking Dead's comic story. The source material ends with Rick Grimes overthrowing the Commonwealth and turning the zombie apocalypse into a groovy paradise where everyone lives in peace and harmony. The Walking Dead season 11, episode 18's CRM tease makes that ending all but impossible for AMC's TV series.
The Walking Dead: World Beyond proved that the CRM doesn't need much provoking to assault an allied community. Somebody so much as sneezes the wrong way, and out come the Civic Republic's biological weapons. Campus Colony was eradicated not for being a threat, but for merely having the potential to become a threat. And by "threat," the CRM includes informing unauthorized entities of their existence. Major General Beale will order thousands of innocent lives to be taken just to maintain the Civic Republic's intense secrecy.
As Lance suggests, that's not good news for the Commonwealth in The Walking Dead. If Lance doesn't meet his next payment, or if the Alexandrians lead a revolution and take over from Pamela (as per the comic books) the CRM will not hesitate to decimate the Commonwealth utterly, having already done exactly that to bigger communities without great effort. Whereas Rick Grimes giving Pamela Milton the boot represented the dawn of a peaceful new era in The Walking Dead's comic books, a regime change on TV could mark the start of a significantly bigger conflict. Cue spinoffs.
Does Lance Know Rick Grimes?! Will He Return?
If the CRM abducted Rick Grimes, and Lance has dealings with the CRM, could Lance possibly know Rick is alive? While this would depend entirely on how deeply Lance has his fingers in the Civic Republic's pie, the suggestion is plausible. In The Walking Dead: World Beyond season 2, Jadis (now going by Jadis Stokes in a nod to Gabriel) tacitly describes Rick Grimes as valuable to the CRM, and how delivering him earned her a place at its table. Although she never elaborates on why Rick is of such high worth, Lance might've at least heard Rick's name if he's so important. Perhaps he's saving that nugget of information for a rainy day.
Lance Hornsby's CRM comment in The Walking Dead season 11, episode 18 certainly makes a Rick return more likely. As revealed in The Walking Dead season 10, Rick was relatively close to Alexandria at one time (and had a picture of Michonne and Judith sketched onto an iPhone) but never made the journey home. Being abducted by the CRM is surely why, either because Rick couldn't come home, or because it wasn't safe to. If Alexandria's presence in the Commonwealth puts his loved ones in the CRM's firing line, however, Rick may have no choice but to intervene in The Walking Dead's ending.
The Walking Dead continues Sunday on AMC.