The Broadway adaptation adapted from Gregory Maguire’s novel Wicked, which is itself a dark preqeul to author Frank L Baum’s The Wizard of Oz, Wicked is a cult phenomenon with a massive following. However, its movie adaptation faced many delays, recasting challenges, and other production issues in the years since its debut.

Now, Its planned sequel Wicked Part 2 is set to be released in November 2025, but this plan could change if Wicked fails to find an audience at the global box office. Like any adaptation, Wicked is a risky investment. Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M Chu has bet big on the musical, judging by its budget.

Wicked's Budget Is Reportedly $145 Million

Expensive CGI and A-List Stars Justify Wicked’s Large Budget

According to Wicked’s expensive CGI and sets also undoubtedly for at least some of its large budget. Wicked’s vision of Oz will be instrumental to its success, and its earliest trailers were criticized for chintzy CGI.

Wicked will need to make around double its budget to be considered a hit at the box office.

Since then, the movie’s finished visual effects appear to have mollified initially skeptical viewers. However, Wicked will need to be more than able if the movie wants to turn a profit. Thanks to marketing and promotional budgets, Wicked will need to make around double its budget to be considered a hit at the box office. This means the adaptation needs to earn over $290 million upon its release for Wicked Part 2’s theatrical release to look like a good idea. This is entirely possible, but the movie will face competition from Gladiator II and Diseny’s sequel, Moana 2.

Wicked's Box Office Needs To Make At Least $290 Million To Be A Success

Wicked Part 2's Theatrical Release Is Contingent On Wicked's Success

While Wicked may well become a success on streaming later on, the movie needs to make at least double its budget to be considered a success upon its initial release. This could be tricky given Wicked’s large price tag, but the star power of its cast and the fame of its songs should help the musical gain a large audience. Even still, Wicked Part Two may have a harder time winning over viewers a year later. Most of the musical’s best-known hits, like "Popular" and "Defying Gravity," appear in its opening act and will therefore have been and gone in Wicked before the sequel even begins.

Source: Deadline