Yugi's iconic victory over Kaiba in the first episode of Yu-Gi-Oh! is one of the series' most iconic moments, but probabilistically it should have never happened. This isn't the first time that an anime has pushed the limits of believability to give its protagonist an epic victory and it certainly won't be the last. But what makes this unlikely incident more grating is how it turns Yugi's first victory into an extremely lucky plot contrivance instead of a deserved win.

Of course, many of the duels in Yu-Gi-Oh! ultimately come down to luck to determine who wins. The nature of the Duel Monsters card game makes it so that if a player doesn't draw the cards they need to get out of a particularly tough situation, then they can easily lose. Some duelists like Joey have even made luck a core part of their strategy, playing many cards that are based on games of chance. But most of the time in these duels, it's not just a matter of the cards a player draws, but how they use them, meaning that these games also require a fair amount of skill in order to win. This is part of what makes Yugi's extremely unlikely win especially frustrating.

Yugi's First Win Over Kaiba in Yu-Gi-Oh! Was By Dumb Luck

In the first major duel of the series, Yugi faces Kaiba to avenge his grandfather, who Kaiba had severely injured and robbed of his precious Blue-Eyes White Dragons. Their duel is back and forth for a while, until Kaiba gets an extreme aggressive edge while Yugi is forced to stall. However, Yugi knows if he can assemble all five pieces of Exodia, he can still win the game. Trusting in the Heart of the Cards and the power of friendship, Yugi is able to finally assemble all five pieces in the nick of time, defeating Kaiba in a devastating blow. Unfortunately, this victory would have been almost impossible statistically.

Over the course of the game, Yugi drew 16 cards. Assuming that his deck has 40 cards, which is the minimum-allowed deck size, the probability of him drawing Exodia is equal to the number of ways to choose 11 cards out of the 35 non-Exodia cards in the deck divided by the number of total combinations of 16 cards Yugi could have drawn. This is around a .7% chance of him drawing all those pieces. Of course, this doesn't quite encapsulate the probability of the game ending on the 16th card drawn as it includes scenarios where Yugi draws all five Exodia pieces beforehand, but those situations are even more improbable. It also assumes Yugi doesn’t play more than 40 cards, but if he had played more his odds of drawing Exodia would be even worse.

Yugi's Most Important Win Had Ridiculously Low Chances Of Happening

The Yu-Gi-Oh! franchise is no stranger to giving its protagonists astounding luck. Future series would even give their protagonists the power to will whatever card they need to win to the top of their deck. Yugi's Heart of the Cards could even be seen as a precursor to that sort of power. However, what makes the impossibly low odds of Yugi winning his first duel against Kaiba in Yu-Gi-Oh! so frustrating is that he essentially wins it based on his astounding luck instead of skill.